Table of Contents
Dear readers,
We are excited to bring you this week's "De/Cypher," a newsletter to keep you up to date with current events across the South Asian region. With increased globalisation, there is an imperative to stay engaged with events taking place across these disparate spheres, because an event in one domain has the potential to reverberate across distant corners of the globe. We aim to bring you closer to the pulse of this fascinating region, sharing stories that examine its economy, explore its political landscape, and shed light on the incredible individuals and communities that shape its future. Every week, you can expect a curated blend of news, insights, and features that showcase the many layers of this region.
Afghanistan-Pakistan De/Cypher
Ethnic-Nationalism: Prominent leaders of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) former lawmaker Ali Wazir and human rights lawyer Imaan Mazari were arrested last week by Islamabad Police after PTM organized a rally in Islamabad. It was alleged that the protest leaders tried to incite government officials to break their oath of allegiance while also trying to undermine the army and promote terrorism. Both Ali Wazir and Imaan Mazari were arrested on charges of sedition, preventing government officials from carrying out their duties and damaging public property. The PTM campaigns for the rights of Pashtuns. Pashtuns form the second-largest ethnic group in Pakistan. Their populations numbers around 35 million, which has been bolstered by an influx of refugees from neighboring Afghanistan. Many of whom live along the border with Afghanistan where the military has conducted campaigns against the Pakistani Taliban. Since 2003, thousands of Pakistani Pashtuns have been killed and millions displaced by the Pakistani Army's campaigns. The PTM has accused Pakistani authorities of systematic discrimination against Pashtuns and say that the ethnic group is discriminated against under the country's constitution. PTM has demanded removal of military checkpoints in tribal areas and an end to "enforced disappearances," in which suspects are detained by Pakistani security forces without due process. Today both Ali Wazir and Imaan Zainab Mazari-Hazir were granted bail by an Islamabad anti-terrorism court (ATC).
Radio Mashaal, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty; Correspondent, The Express Tribune; Correspondent, The Express Tribune
Domestic Politics: Before being dissolved Pakistan’s parliament passed two bills that together represent the biggest grant of power to the military in many years. The Pakistan Army (Amendment) Bill 2023 gives full legal status to the military's sprawling business empire, criminalizes criticism of the armed forces and authorizes them to "carry out activities related to national development and advancement of national or strategic interests." The Official Secrets (Amendment) Bill 2023 gives security agencies unlimited discretionary powers to arrest any individual that they deem to pose a threat. "Approaches" to military installations and offices, not to mention intrusions and attacks, are prohibited. Suspects can be tried in military courts. This amendment seems intended to punish the kind of mob attacks on military facilities and personnel that erupted on May 9 when opposition leader Imran Khan was first arrested. But read together, the two laws are further militarizing the politics, economy, and justice system of Pakistan. They can be seen to legalize enforced disappearances of political dissidents and the neutralization of fundamental rights and freedoms. In sum, their passage has put the nation's democracy in serious peril.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, Nikkei Asia
Inflation Impact: The increase in power tariff by the caretaker government has forced the people of Pakistan into the streets. Massive demonstrations are being staged demanding a reduction in the electricity bills and withdrawal of excess taxes for the third consecutive day. As the protests are intensifying across the country, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar held an emergency meeting at his office to mull relief measures for the masses. In Peshawar where agitated citizens have taken to the streets, the Peshawar Electric Supply Company (PESCO) has sought police protection amid fears of violence.
By Abdul Basit, Abubakar Saddiq, Syed Muhammad Zameer, The International News
Foreign Trade: Pakistan might lose its Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status given by European union, which allows zero import duties on 66% of goods. The status is at risk due to a recent bout of sectarian violence as well as legislation that toughened penalties for blasphemy in the Muslim-majority country. Attacks on churches and Christian communities in eastern Pakistan have ignited debate on recently passed blasphemy legislation and raised concerns about the country's trade status with the European Union, which has long had a critical eye on the country's religious tensions. The EU is Pakistan's primary export market. Losing the GSP+ status would lead to an export decline and job losses."
Foreign Aid: In Asia, a new geo-political competition is in the making. The Japanese government has pledged to approach developing nations with foreign aid rather than wait for requests for assistance, in a new policy meant to compete with China's Belt and Road infrastructure campaign. Tokyo's new offer-based aid will be combined with the conventional request-based process, as outlined in the revised Development Cooperation Charter, Japan's blueprint for its official development assistance program. Pakistan being one of the largest beneficiaries of foreign aid specially from Asian countries will definitely benefit from this new development in Japanese foreign policy.
Infrastructure: Pakistan and China have launched a new trade route under the international road transport (TIR) to boost bilateral trade. The route starts from China’s inland city of Kashgar to the Pakistani capital city of Islamabad. Earlier this week, the first convoy of five trucks departed from Kashgar after an inaugural ceremony which was attended by the Chinese and Pakistani officials. The National Logistics Corporation of Pakistan and China’s CEVA Logistics have signed an agreement to facilitate trade under the United Nations International Road Transport Convention.
Economy: Last week, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) representative in Pakistan said that the reform process to which the government had agreed required the country to keep all state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the Ministry of Finance (MoF) oversight. Pakistan has been discussing outsourcing operations of several of its state-owned assets to outside companies. In March, it kicked off outsourcing of operations and land assets at three major airports to be run under a public private partnership, a move to generate foreign exchange reserves for its ailing economy.
News Desk, The Express Tribune
Infographic
Pakistan’s most recent IMF bailout marks the 23rd time the country has went to the IMF for a lending commitment. Between 1958-1988 11 lending commitments with the IMF were agreed to whereas between 1993-2001, 8 lending commitments were agreed to in less than one-third of the preceding timeframe.
Opinion
In Pakistan, the country's top opposition leader Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is serving a prison sentence for corruption and the authorities are cracking down on his party and supporters. The next elections are likely to be held without him as an active participant. Is this the end of him? Riazat Butt and Munir Ahmed analyse this Political situation in their opinion published on The Diplomat.
Is Prison the End of the Political Road for Pakistan’s Imran Khan? – The Diplomat
Bangladesh De/Cypher
Top Stories from this week
BRICS expanded without Bangladesh
Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt have been approved as new members of the BRICS group, bringing the bloc's total to 11 countries. This expansion includes major Middle Eastern oil producers, indicating the integration of significant players from the global oil industry into the BRICS alliance. Despite having expressed interest in joining BRICS, Bangladesh was not among the approved new members. Chinese President Xi Jinping has assured Bangladesh of his support in joining BRICS and resolving the Rohingya crisis. The BRICS leaders also discussed a variety of issues, including reforming multilateral financial institutions and upholding international law.
World Bank to provide Bangladesh with $100m to control dengue: Health Minister
The World Bank will provide $100 million to Bangladesh to combat the mosquito-borne disease dengue, which has claimed the lives of 506 people this year. The funds will be distributed to the Ministry of Local Government for mosquito control and urban health development. In addition, the minister stated that an additional $700 million will be allocated to help the Rohingya and host communities with infrastructure and services.
‘BD suffers $1.0b in economic losses due to floods in 2022’
According to a report, floods cost Bangladesh $1 billion in economic losses in 2022, affecting 7.3 million people. Floods submerge 55-60% of the country each year, and peak river flow could increase by 36% by 2070-2099 under a high-emission scenario. Floods have already claimed lives and caused economic damage, and without adaptation and resilience, these costs will rise even further.
International Outlook
Bangladesh had formally applied for BRICS membership, which analysts interpreted as a gesture to offset Washington's pressure on the upcoming general election, as the grouping is seen as a counterweight to Western powers. As a result, Bangladeshi policymakers were eager to join. Despite their rejection, China has reaffirmed its support for Bangladesh with President XI Jingping providing PM Sheikh Hasina with assurances for the future.
Relevant Stories
Bangladesh and the UK are set to conduct a strategic dialogue in Dhaka during the second week of September. Discussions will cover a range of topics including trade, investment, diplomatic relations, global issues, and security. Previous dialogue in 2021 saw the UK affirm its support for Bangladesh's graduation and export-led growth, offering duty-free market access until 2029. During a meeting with Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal earlier this month, British High Commissioner to Bangladesh Sarah Cooke expressed the UK's support for a free, fair, participatory, and peaceful election in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh and Algeria discussed the need for increased bilateral collaboration, aiming to conclude agreements and expand cooperation in emerging sectors. Bangladesh expressed interest in purchasing LNG from Algeria to address its energy needs. The nations explored mutual interests in various fields such as politics, economics, trade, and investment. Plans for high-level visits in the coming year were agreed upon.
Bangladesh and Japan are in discussions to sign an agreement for the transfer of defence equipment and technology, aiming to bolster regional peace and stability. The Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Iwama Kiminori, mentioned that the details are not yet disclosed but progress is positive. Japan has selected Bangladesh as one of the beneficiaries of its new Official Security Assistance (OSA) program and both countries have agreed to appoint defence attaches at their respective embassies. The issue was brought up during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to Japan in April.
Australian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Jeremy Bruer, met with ICC Bangladesh President Mahbubur Rahman and the Executive Board members. Discussions centred on enhancing bilateral trade and investment. The high commissioner affirmed Australia's commitment to duty-free access for Bangladeshi exports, even after Bangladesh's graduation to a Middle-Income Country in 2026.
Saudi Hajj and Umrah Minister Tawfiq Al-Rabiah's visit to Bangladesh has led to the introduction of measures to ease Umrah travel for Bangladeshis. Notably, the Umrah visa duration has been extended from 30 to 90 days, allowing visitors to explore other cities within Saudi Arabia.
National Politics
Ninety-six leaders and activists of Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatra Shibir, including Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman and Secretary General Mia Golam Parwar, have been charged in a case related to torching vehicles and obstructing police duties in 2012. While Rahman and Parwar, along with 78 others on bail, pleaded not guilty to the charges, 18 other accused who have been on the run since the case's filing had charges framed against them in their absence. The trial is set to begin next month.
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia's health condition remains unsatisfactory even after 18 days of hospitalisation, according to her personal physician Prof AZM Zahid Hossain. While her condition is improving slowly, the medical board is striving for her early recovery. She is trying to seek treatment abroad.
BNP marched with black flags on Friday and Saturday to press its one-point demand for the government's resignation. The procession took place in the capital on Friday and throughout the country on Saturday. The programme was held as part of the opposition party's simultaneous movement.
Quotes of the week
Statements from Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Secretary General of the BNP spoke about the AL this week.
Speaking at a discussion titled 'Protection of Constitutional, Fundamental and Human Rights of Citizens' at Dhaka Reporters' Unity in the city on Wednesday:
“The ruling Awami League has one problem. They believe that they are the owner of the country. To get rid of the situation there must be a struggle by the youths and other people. The huge stone (government) on our shoulders cannot be removed without a big tsunami."
Dr Abdul Moin Khan, standing committee member of BNP, speaking at a discussion titled 'The role of citizens to restore democracy and voting rights'
“Please see the demand of the people. Leave power willingly which is not a matter of shame. The government verbally says about democracy but what they do is totally against democracy.”
Statements from Awami League (AL)
Obaidul Quader, general secretary of the ruling Bangladesh AL made several statements this week.
Speaking at a views-exchange meeting between AL committee heads on Tuesday:
“BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir alleged that we killed 22 of their leaders and activists. Fakhrul Saheb, you (BNP) have killed our 22,000 leaders and activists. You now talk about democracy but where was the democracy during your rule.”
Speaking at a peace rally arranged by AL's Dhaka city south unit on Friday:
“BNP calls it a mass rally. How can a mass rally be held without any people? Awami League will show BNP what mass rally is. Awami League's procession means participation of people. AL will hold a rally of millions of young people on September 1. It will show a procession of millions of young people with the flag of victory, not the black flag.”
Speaking at a food distribution programme marking the 48th martyrdom anniversary of the father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in Dhaka’s Mirpur on Saturday:
“BNP want the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, people don’t want Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, caretaker government and dissolution of the parliament.”
PM Sheikh Hasina speaking virtually at a Road Show titled “The Rise of Bengal Tiger: Bangladesh Trade and Business Summit" on Wednesday:
“I have a dream; the 170 million people of Bangladesh have a dream. And that is, to become a trillion-dollar economy and a fully developed smart nation by 2041.”
Business and Economy
The combined economic output in the entire Bangladesh economic corridor region is projected to rise from $32 billion in 2020 to $286 billion by 2050 under the business-induced scenario (BIS), with growing trade intervention. The corridor's output is expected to gradually exceed the business-as-usual scenario's output, becoming 1.4 times by 2030 and 2.6 times by 2050.
Relevant Stories
Bangladesh and the World Bank have signed a $300 million financing agreement for the Economic Acceleration and Resilience for NEET (EARN) Project, which aims to equip around 900,000 rural youths, with skills, and alternative education for employment and entrepreneurship. The project will establish vocational training centres offering skills development opportunities, provide online and offline courses, and offer financing and mentorship support for entrepreneurial activities. The credit has a 30-year term, including a five-year grace period, and supports Bangladesh's efforts to enhance employability and economic resilience.
Sri Lanka repaid the first $50 million installment of a $200 million loan borrowed from Bangladesh under a currency swap agreement made two years ago. The repayment comes as Sri Lanka aims to address its economic and political crisis.
Bangladesh Bank achieved a record net profit of over Tk 150 billion in FY23, marking a 148% year-on-year increase, driven by robust government borrowing and investments from foreign currency reserves. The central bank's net profit for the fiscal year also reached a record of around Tk 107.5 billion, a 239% increase. The earnings are expected to be largely contributed to the state exchequer, as per the bank's financial report. Vigorous government borrowing of Tk 1.24 trillion, including Tk 976 billion from the central bank, and investment returns from reserves led to these historic earnings.
The newly appointed Chairman of Chittagong Port Authority (CPA), Rear Admiral Mohammad Sohail, announced the expectation to attract $5-7 billion in foreign investment over the next three years. Chittagong Port, a key gateway for Bangladesh's global trade, is focusing on port-centric development projects and introducing new technologies through foreign companies. The CPA aims to transform into a fully digitised port and play a significant role in achieving sustainable development goals.
Bangladesh's largest private-sector group, Beximco, has constructed the country's largest solar power plant with a capacity of 200 megawatts (MW) in Sundarganj. The project, undertaken through its subsidiary Teesta Solar Limited, aims to address the country's energy crisis. The company invested about $300 million in the project and plans to set up more solar power plants in the future.
Rohingya Refugee Situation
As Bangladesh marks the sixth anniversary of the Rohingya influx, concerns are rising about potential security threats and tensions between the host community and Rohingya refugees. Delays in repatriation have been attributed to a lack of sincerity from Myanmar's side, with some international organisations advocating for Rohingya integration into Bangladeshi society. Increased incidents of gun-running, drug trafficking, and clashes within the refugee camps have been reported, with terrorist groups like the Arakan Salvation Army (ARSA) extending their activities. The situation has led to security risks and tension between the host community and refugees, with local jobs impacted and rising negative sentiments.
Relevant Stories
On Tuesday, in Cox's Bazar, a Rohingya youth named Mohammad Yunus was allegedly shot and killed by members of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in the Kutupalong camp. The incident occurred after ARSA members opened fire on Yunus around 7:30pm, suspecting his involvement with the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO). He was fatally injured and died while being transported to the hospital.
More than 500,000 Rohingya children are facing endangerment due to reduced food aid in refugee camps in Bangladesh, with the World Food Programme (WFP) cuts causing Rohingya in Cox's Bazar to live on just $0.27 a day. Since Rohingya are prohibited from working or leaving the camps, these funding reductions have aggravated their already dire living conditions. The cuts have led to inadequate diets for 45% of Rohingya families, widespread malnutrition, and 40% of children experiencing stunted growth.
On Saturday, law enforcement agencies conducted a joint patrol in the Rohingya refugee camps of Cox's Bazar due to an increasing incident of crimes, particularly related to narcotics and murders. Over 450 members of various law enforcement units participated in the three-hour patrol. These joint patrols will be conducted regularly to address the security concerns.
Latest in Society
On Monday, the Election Commission of Bangladesh announced plans to issue National Identity (NID) cards to Bangladeshi expatriates in the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia before the upcoming general election.
On Tuesday, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) discovered an illegal arms manufacturing factory in Sitakunda upazila of Chattogram district, leading to the arrest of two individuals, Jahangir Alam and Md Emon. Jahangir, who had been posing as a farmer, had been involved in arms production and supplying them to criminal groups, including pirates, drug peddlers, and robbers.
On Friday night, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested three individuals, including a former driver, in connection with the abduction and torture of a National Board of Revenue (NBR) joint commissioner, Masuma Khatun.
Views and Analysis
Politics
What Bangladesh can expect from Joe Biden’s forthcoming India visit?
President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to India, primarily for the G-20 Summit, is viewed as strengthening the Indo-US relationship and countering China's influence. Despite speculations that the Biden administration aims to destabilise Bangladesh's secular Awami League government in favour of the Islamist Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), India opposes this shift.
Economy
Bangladesh's looming debt bills to China, Russia fuel forex fears
Bangladesh faces mounting pressure on its foreign exchange reserves due to upcoming loan repayments for Chinese and Russian infrastructure projects.
Climate
Why Western approaches can't prevent river erosion in Bangladesh
River erosion poses a severe threat to Bangladesh's land, causing loss of homes and agricultural areas. Western methods involving hard structures and embankments have failed due to the country's unique river characteristics, high water volumes, extreme sediment content, and seasonal fluctuations.
Crime
A Hong Kong trading company was allegedly defrauded out of more than $13 million in a sophisticated international scam. Their investigations led them to a convicted Bangladeshi fraudster — and uncovered payments he made to his long-time friend, the head of Bangladesh’s capital markets regulator. The company defrauded filed a complaint with Bangladesh’s anti-corruption authorities, yet no action was taken.
Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
Infographic
Throughout 2023, the number of dengue cases in Bangladesh has increased. In 2019, Bangladesh experienced its worst Dengue outbreak in its history. The current outbreak in Bangladesh has been declared an epidemic, and the international community is supplying the government with additional resources to combat the spread of the virus.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the respective authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policies or positions of the publishers.
