Table of Contents
Written By De/Cypher Team
Backdrop
The South China Sea (SCS) is one of Asia's most complex and highly securitised geopolitical spaces. It is a disputed area comprising three major archipelagos - the Paracel, the Spartley and the Pratas. The SCS is a semi-enclosed sea bordered by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China as declared by the 1982 Law of Sea Convention (LOSC) under Article 122.
SCS's security concerns regional and non-regional actors alike. The area has high economic and strategic importance. Its oil and hydrocarbon reserves along with other natural resources add to its allure. It sees about $3.37 million worth of global trade push through its sea lanes as last reported in 2016 and is located close to East Asia. The regional players who have asserted their stake in the SCS area include China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei and Malaysia while America, Australia, India, Japan and Russia have become deeply embroiled in the region as well. Initially a site for maritime territorial disputes, it has emerged as a playing field for US-Chinese competition in the Western Pacific region. The region is subject to the international jurisdiction of the United Nations Convention of the Law of Seas (UNCLOS) that came into effect in 1994 and is governed by multiple conventions - both environmental and strategic. These include COLREGS (1972), MARPOL (1973), the SOLAS (1974), SAR (19789), the SUA (1988 and 2005), the OPRC (1990), and the OPRC-HNS Protocol (2000).
The attention to the South China Sea (SCS) region is a fairly new turn of events. “The mapping and demarcation of South China Sea features only began in the latter half of the 19th century, and no country laid a serious claim to any of the features until the early 20th century.” No country viewed the area in terms of claimancy but rather saw the area majorly as a trade route.
Sovereignty Claims - China has laid claim to the majority of the region in what is infamously known as the ‘nine-dash line’ that cuts into Filipino and Vietnamese territories. The Paracel Islands are under full Chinese control, a claim that Vietnam refutes. The Philippines lays claim over the Spratly Islands, the Kalayaan Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Vietnam lays claim to the entirety of the Spratly Islands and the western region of the SCS.
Militarization of the Zone - The Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN), the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and the Maritime Militia (MM) dominate the security landscape at present. “China’s new capabilities include the Russian SS- N- 22 Sunburn and the SS- N- 27 Sizzler cruise missiles, which are carried on Russian- made destroyers and submarines, respectively.” The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the US and the Philippines, allows the former full access to ports, bases and airfields of the latter adding to the tensions.
Interpretation of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) - UNCLOS recognizes three types of territories in the South China Sea (SCS) region - territorial seas, contiguous zones and exclusive economic zones or EEZs. Territorial seas extend up to 12 miles from a state’s coastline and enjoy full sovereign control whereas a contiguous zone extends to 24 nautical miles from the state’s coastal baseline with sovereign control. Exclusive Economic Zones or EEZs are an extension of the economic rights of a state 200 nautical miles beyond the contiguous zone. Most territorial disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines and the Chinese stem from a mismatched understanding of what constitutes EEZs.
Navigation in Sea Lanes of Communication - As an external power of influence, the US has not openly sided with any country’s territorial claim but insists on having open sea lines of communication (SLOCs) citing trade needs. It has engaged in military and naval exercises to ensure its accessibility to the waters of the South China Sea.
Cartographic Warfare - The regional actors in the South China Sea have deployed the strategic use of maps and territorial claims to establish ownership in the region. Through an aggressive posturing of territories that are disputed as sovereign, this strategy is an effective tool used by China, the Philippines and Vietnam to gather soft power.
The Situation
Geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea remain a constant threat to world stability. The situation is a web of military alliances, strategic partnerships and nationalist assertions. Some scholars believe that domestic demands in the region outweigh military-security issues but it would be a fallacy to see either issue as divorced from the other. The Philippines’s insecurity when dealing with a revisionist power like China led to it entering into military alliances with the United States, the Chinese engaged in multilateral talks to combat terrorism and piracy in the region when domestic concerns were raised over economic loss.
U.S.’ Rebalance Strategy to Asia
On November 17, 2011, President Obama unveiled his Asia rebalance strategy in a speech to the Australian parliament. The strategy sought to shift U.S. interests away from the Middle East and towards the Asia-Pacific region, recognising its strategic importance. Since then, the United States has increased its presence in the region and consolidated bilateral relations with China's neighbouring countries. This included a renewed interest in the South China Sea region in an attempt to ensure open sea lanes of communication for trading purposes.
U.S. Support for the Philippines in the South China Sea Conflict
The United States has significantly strengthened the Philippines' ability to confront China in the South China Sea conflict. The United States has pledged $2.5 billion over five years to modernise the Philippine armed forces, demonstrating a real investment in Manila's defence. This commitment emphasises the "ironclad" nature of the US-Philippines mutual defence treaty, which strengthens their collaboration in addressing regional security challenges.
Over 16,000 personnel have participated in joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, such as the annual Balikatan drills, which include naval operations outside of the Philippines' territorial waters for the first time. These exercises improve interoperability and send a powerful message of deterrence to potential aggressors, particularly China.
The United States supports the Philippines' fight against coercion and seeks to maintain a rules-based order in the region. Admiral Stephen Koehler of the United States Pacific Fleet reiterated this sentiment during talks with his Chinese counterparts.
India's Role in the South China Sea Conflict
India's involvement in the South China Sea conflict adds to the complexity. India has sent supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines, indicating a growing presence in the region. The BrahMos missiles, purchased by Manila for $375 million, strengthen the Philippines' defence capabilities in the face of Chinese aggression. India's support for the Philippines is consistent with its broader strategic goals, which include countering China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
China's View and Actions in the South China Sea Conflict
China is concerned about the ongoing military exercises between the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea, which it sees as provocative actions that could escalate regional tensions. China has warned against using "gunboat muscles" and emphasised the value of dialogue in resolving maritime disputes.
China's territorial claims in the South China Sea are contentious, with Beijing asserting sovereignty over vast areas, including islands and shoals claimed by neighbouring countries such as the Philippines. Despite international rulings rejecting China's claims, Beijing maintains its position, rejecting a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal.
China has a significant military presence in the South China Sea, deploying its coast guard, navy, and paramilitary forces to assert control. Chinese Coast Guard vessels have engaged in confrontations with vessels from other claimant states, including the Philippines. China's assertive stance in the South China Sea extends beyond military posturing to strategic control of the region's energy resources.
Implications of China's Dominance in the South China Sea
China's dominance in the South China Sea has far-reaching consequences for energy security and Indo-Pacific geopolitics. China's control over energy-rich areas has forced countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) rather than developing their own energy resources. China's tactics, such as its massive claims and rejection of international rulings, have effectively deterred Southeast Asian countries from contesting its claims.
The Philippines, in particular, faces energy security challenges, with the crucial Malampaya gas field expected to be commercially depleted by 2027. Chinese interference in offshore projects within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone undermines efforts to develop alternative energy sources. The Philippines seeks to defend its territory and economic interests but has few options given China's dominance in the region.
Conclusion
The South China Sea seems to be evoking a ‘cyclic sense of insecurity’ among China and USA which has led to the region becoming so militarised. China sees American presence as a challenge to its sovereignty and for the promotion of a ‘rules-based’ international order to which it does not adhere. It believes protecting its maritime territory is essential to maintain its economic presence. Southeast Asian nations lack the military power to challenge China's dominance and despite diplomatic efforts and declarations of a desire to maintain peace, the situation in the South China Sea appears to deteriorate. Without a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, the vast energy resources of the South China Sea may remain untapped, impeding regional development and potentially leading to further instability.
