Table of Contents
De/Cypher Data Dive
Pakistan's military expenditure has been higher than Bangladesh's
Breaking News: Palestinian Prime Minister Shtayyeh resigns
Af-Pak De/Cypher
26 Feb, 2024
Pakistan's Post-Election Update
Following Pakistan's 2024 General Election, the political landscape is unfolding with intriguing developments. PPP and PML-N criticized President Arif Alvi for delaying the National Assembly session, raising concerns about the constitutionally mandated deadline. Meanwhile, PML-N leaders Ayaz Sadiq and Khawaja Saad Rafique called for a grand dialogue among political parties to address the country's challenges, emphasizing unity and constructive criticism.
Provincial leadership elections complicate matters further. In Punjab, Maryam Nawaz Sharif of the PML-N will face Rana Aftab Ahmed of the Sunni Ittehad Council, while Murad Ali Shah of the PPP will face Ali Khurshidi of the MQM-P. Sindh will also elect a Chief Minister. The PML-N's dominance in Punjab, as evidenced by recent speaker elections, points to Maryam Nawaz's likely victory.
In the midst of these developments, the PTI's leadership is uncertain, as Imran Khan remains in prison. Barrister Gohar Ali Khan, who was previously elected chairman of the PTI, has been nominated again after Ali Zafar declined. The upcoming PTI elections on March 3 will involve over six million party members from Pakistan's capitals, with Khan-backed candidates expected to win. This election, overseen by provincial commissioners, has the potential to shape Pakistan's political direction in the coming days.
This week in Pakistan
X platform disrupted in Pakistan for full week after disputed election
Nationwide disruption to social media platform X lasted for a full week in Pakistan after a disputed election, with digital rights monitors cautioning that the outages were stifling dissent. The platform went down after a government official admitted to vote manipulation in the February 8 poll. The disruptions restricted citizens' online engagement, leading to calls for protests from the jailed former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Read more: Arab News
Pakistan's army was the clear election loser
Analysts were surprised by the recent Pakistani election, in which Imran Khan's PTI-linked independent candidates won 93 National Assembly seats, surpassing other parties. This victory reflects public resentment of military intervention and disillusionment with traditional parties. Khan, who represents opposition to military dominance, received support, particularly from Pakistan's young electorate. The PTI's success in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may be due to regional support for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Despite the challenges, a coalition government without the PTI appears likely, with consequences for stability and the military's image. Read more: Nikkei Asia
Pakistan to seek at least $6bn in new IMF loan programme
Pakistan plans to seek a $6 billion IMF loan to repay debts, aiming for talks in March or April for an Extended Fund Facility post last summer's short-term bailout. IMF conditions include budget revisions and increased rates. PTI's Imran Khan called for an election audit before loan discussions, alleging mandate theft. His remarks drew criticism as IMF negotiations are crucial for economic stability amidst Pakistan's vulnerable external position, per Fitch ratings agency. Read more: The Business Recorder
Border challenges stall Pakistan-Afghanistan trade
Efforts to increase bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan are hampered by operational and political barriers at the Torkham and Chaman borders. Despite the potential for trade growth, border closures and challenges for traders result in significant financial losses. Stakeholders emphasize the importance of improved border management, collaborative efforts, and dialogue between the two countries in improving economic conditions and revitalizing the declining trade relationship, which has dropped from $2.5 billion to $80-90 million. Read more: The Express Tribune
USAID empowers female engineers in energy sector through innovative training program
In an effort to promote gender equity in Pakistan's energy sector, USAID celebrated the completion of the Power System and Distribution Network Planning (PSDNP) Training Program for female engineers. This collaboration with the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) seeks to empower engineers from Pakistan's power companies. The training provided 31 female engineers with expertise in power system planning software, benefiting the energy industry as a whole. Read more: AP/Pakistan
The Israel Question: Pakistan, Iran and China’s Influence
Written by De/Cypher Team
The year 2024 began with the onset of some of the most disturbing events unfolding in the Gaza Strip, a battleground for Israel and Palestine, locked in conflict since the mid-20th Century. These events have had severe geopolitical consequences for the entire world including the Middle East and South Asia. While the world calls for a ceasefire in the region, both sides continue to fight, keeping the international community on edge. The conflict has begun to spread over to other countries in the Middle East where attacks are happening in pockets including Yemen and Lebanon.
Iran on the Israel-Gaza Conflict
Iran, openly hostile to Israel, has been using its proxies to launch attacks on Israeli and American troops. The most prominent among these proxy actors are the Houthis in Yemen and the Hezbollah in Lebanon. The central tapestry woven into the anti-Israeli stance, officially adopted as the Foreign Policy of Iran, is the larger Islamic idea of world order. Iran officially backs Hamas, the Sunni Muslim militant group of the Gaza Strip and has been chipping away at the Israelis through the recent round of conflict in the region. These attacks by Iran have been covert as Iran is in no condition to fight an outright war with either Israel or the Americans, due to weak internal conditions including terrorist threats from Kurdistan and Baluchistan. Continuing with the legacy of shadow warfare established between the Iranians and Israelis, the role of Iran in the conflict has been limited till now. However, Iran has vowed to continue to support Hamas.
The Israeli Question: Where Does Pakistan Stand?
Pakistan is the only Muslim-majority nation in all of Asia, to not downright dismiss Israel. Malaysia and Indonesia have condemned Israel very publicly while Islamabad has refrained from doing so. Pakistan has been more pragmatic in its response to Israeli aggression. While a thorough Palestinian supporter, it has been mindful of its strategic relationship with Israel. While the public rhetoric is true to the country's Islamic roots, strategic calculations with Israel emerge as a crucial linchpin in the Israeli Policy of the country.
The Chinese Effect
Iran is a major player in the Middle Eastern regional order, however, the influence the Chinese have on them cannot be denied. China has used ‘strategic hedging’ to be able to insert itself in a precarious regional order in the Middle East. (Strategic hedging “is an option for a second-tier extra-regional power that wants to pursue its interests without disrupting an advantageous status quo. Successful hedging allows a state to cultivate ties with everyone while carefully avoiding alienating anyone, usually by developing stronger economic and diplomatic relations without introducing an aggressive security presence.”) Careful not to undermine the US presence in the region but also to operationalise its economic and political vision, China has been successful in establishing strategic partnerships with nearly all countries in the region. The Chinese Customs data reports that China-Middle East trade volume nearly doubled over the 2017 to 2022 period, from $262.5 billion to $507.2 billion. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a Chinese brainchild has gained sufficient international attention and is the central mission in the region of the Chinese. Iran has held Chinese opinion in high esteem and is in favour of maintaining friendly relations with Beijing. This need could be seen as a potential deterrent to Iran not launching an outright attack on the Israelis and using proxy warfare.
A similar argument can be drawn for Pakistan. The growing confluence of Pakistan and China could allow certain concessions to be made to the Israelis by Islamabad. As a counter to Indian hegemony in the South Asian region, Pakistan and China have established strong technical, strategic and military relations in the region. “In 2021, China exported $23.5B to Pakistan. The main products exported from China to Pakistan were Broadcasting Equipment ($1.7B), Refined Petroleum ($1.51B), and Vaccines, blood, antisera, toxins and cultures ($1.48B).” The Pakistanis would be highly wary of doing anything that could jeopardise their relationship with Beijing and would not want to ruffle any feathers.
The Israel-Palestine question warrants a very nuanced diplomatic response given the densely integrated nature of the present world order, the technological and military dependence on Israel and the responsibility to the international community. The future holds interesting answers to difficult questions.
The Securitisation of Energy Russia’s Use of Hydrocarbons in its Foreign Policy since the Ukraine Invasion
Written by Emily Ferris; Published in Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Analyzed by De/Cypher Team
The RUSI occasional paper from November 2023 examines Russia's use of the hydrocarbon industry for strategic purposes, focusing on its role as a major oil and gas supplier and how it leverages energy for political influence and concessions. It notes the complexities in Russia's energy strategy, highlighting competing approaches and inherent flaws. The paper also underscores Russia's focus on resource extraction and Arctic exports, as well as its strategic connections between land and maritime areas. It discusses Russia's evolving view of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a tool for domestic energy delivery and its investment in the North-South Corridor, a railway project linking Russia to the Indian Ocean via Iran.
Russia's energy market is dominated by Gazprom and Rosneft, major oil and gas producers overseen by the Kremlin. The document discussed challenges from vested interests within the sector, highlighting conflicts between official strategies and individual interests. It also emphasized Gazprom's influence in financing, oil, and media. Russia links energy security closely to sovereignty and strategic competition, seeing security of demand and market access as key to its national security and identity. Moscow considers any threats to its energy market access, whether from sanctions or climate agendas, as serious security risks. This view shapes Russia's foreign policy, aiming to safeguard energy interests and counter perceived threats to its security. This energy securitization reflects Russia's view of energy as crucial for economic, political, and national security, influencing its geopolitical decisions and international influence.
In terms of Russia's foreign relations, the document discusses its evolving alliances and partnerships. It mentions Russia's reimagining of the globe and its intention to place Moscow at the center of global decision-making. The document also touches upon Russia's relationship with Saudi Arabia, including major investments by Saudi companies in Russian oil and gas companies. It notes that Russia has been on the back foot since the war in Ukraine, with limited international partners to call upon.
The two key indications are the two strategies that the kremlin has intertwined in the last 4 years:
- Energy Strategy (ES): Russia's current Energy Strategy, known as ES-35, was approved in 2020 and runs until 2035. It emphasizes the importance of hydrocarbons to Russia's national security, given their significant contribution to the federal budget. The strategy focuses on safeguarding the oil and gas industry, prioritizing extraction and exports, and launching major projects in the Arctic and other regions to increase resource production. It also aims to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and develop infrastructure to support it.
- National Security Strategy (NSS): The NSS, published in 2021, recognizes the pervasive role of energy in Russia's security and daily life. It highlights the need to protect heating, defense industries, and nuclear power plants, considering them crucial aspects of Russia's economic security. The NSS also underscores the increasing securitization of energy, with external attempts at reform and geopolitical competition viewed as threats to Russia's energy security.
Read full report here.
X Snapshot
It would be impossible to compete internationally without advanced technologies and a modern soft infrastructure. The U.S. tech companies dominate globally. Pakistan needs them much more than it ever did. This has serious implications for our foreign & economic policies
— Yousuf Nazar (@YousufNazar) February 25, 2024
Bangladesh De/Cypher
26 Feb, 2024
This week in Bangladesh
Bangladesh-USA keen to begin new chapter in relations: Foreign minister
Bangladesh and the United States are looking to start a new chapter in their relationship, according to a meeting between Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and a visiting US delegation led by Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher. The discussions focused on shared interests such as development, investment, and security cooperation. The US delegation also discussed bringing back Rashed Chowdhury, Bangabandhu's self-confessed killer, and informed Bangladesh that they were waiting for a decision from their judiciary on the matter. Read more: Prothom Alo
Bangladesh's Nobel winner Yunus fights for legacy as legal screws tighten
Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh's Nobel laureate and founder of Grameen Bank, is embroiled in a legal battle that includes a $5 million tax bill, a travel ban, and a suspended prison sentence. Recent actions include the seizure of his office building by unidentified Grameen Bank officials, as well as his removal from two businesses he founded. International attention and concern have been raised, with the UN describing him as a "valued partner" and the US warning of potential consequences for foreign investment in Bangladesh. Read more: Nikkei Asia
Bangladeshis launch ‘India Out’ campaign over New Delhi’s alleged meddling to keep Hasina in power
Bangladeshi dissidents and opposition groups launched the "India Out" campaign to boycott Indian goods in response to accusations that New Delhi was meddling in Bangladesh's internal affairs to keep Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in power. The movement gained traction on social media through hashtags such as #IndiaOut and street rallies by opposition parties. Read more: SCMP
PM seeks WB special fund for women entrepreneurs
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has requested a special fund from the World Bank to support the socio-economic advancement of women in Bangladesh, particularly to create more women entrepreneurs. During a meeting with WB Managing Director (Operations) Anna Bjerde, she emphasized the need for this fund to expedite government efforts in empowering women through entrepreneurship. Read more: The Daily Star
Myanmar Junta forcefully recruiting Rohingya from camps
The Myanmar junta is forcefully recruiting Rohingya Muslims from displacement camps, offering freedom of movement as an enticement to join the army despite the group not being recognized as citizens. This recruitment drive is part of a larger conscription effort in Myanmar, with millions of citizens eligible for mandatory military service under the "People's Military Service Law" enacted in February. Read more: The Business Standard
Qatar assures support for Bangladesh's media growth
Qatar has pledged support for Bangladesh's media growth, promising to help develop the country's media landscape and foster the emergence of global media outlets. This collaboration, announced by Qatar Media Corporation CEO Sheikh Abdul Aziz bin Thani Al-Thani during a meeting with Bangladesh's State Minister for Information and Broadcasting Mohammad Ali Arafat, aims to benefit from Qatar's experience with networks such as Al Jazeera. Read more: The Business Post
Bangladesh HC suspends permits to use elephants for entertainment purposes
Bangladesh's critically endangered wild elephants have received court protection banning their adoption and exploitation, with a suspension of all licences for capturing young Asian elephants. This move, welcomed by animal rights groups, aims to prevent the use of elephants for entertainment purposes, which often subjected them to harsh treatment and exploitation. With only about 200 Asian elephants left in Bangladesh, this court order marks a significant step towards their conservation and welfare. Read more: BD News 24
X Snapshot
We're starting to get more clarity on US policy in Bangladesh, post-BD polls. The focus on strategic & trade cooperation will continue, while the focus on rights/democracy will revolve around pushes to strengthen civil society, but w/less public criticism of the gov't in Dhaka.
— Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) February 24, 2024
Asia Headlines: Quick Recap
India should rethink push to join International Energy Agency
Israel, Hamas skirmish in Gaza as truce efforts pick up paceIsraeli troops clashed with Palestinian gunmen in Gaza as cease-fire talks continued, but the prospects for a truce remained uncertain. Israel intended to increase its efforts against Hamas, which demanded a permanent end to the conflict. Mediators intensified talks to free hostages, with some progress, but doubts remained. Talks in Doha were expected this week, with reports of a possible framework for hostage release. (Money Control)
S. Korea doctors may be suspended unless they return to work -officialSouth Korean doctors who participate in a mass walkout risk having their licenses suspended or facing legal consequences if they do not return to work by March, according to Vice Health Minister Park Min-soo. Over 9,000 trainee doctors, representing more than two-thirds of resident and intern doctors, have joined the protest against the government's plan to increase medical school admissions by 2,000 per year. (Reuters)
Japan's ruling LDP registers weakest support since return to powerSupport for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dropped to 25%, the lowest since returning to power in 2012, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet also receiving a record low of 25% approval in a Nikkei-TV Tokyo poll. A fundraising scandal involving party factions is cited as the primary reason for the decline. (Nikkei Asia)
Taliban releases 84-year-old Austrian man who was detained in Afghanistan last year
Stay tuned for the next De/Cypher Newsletter coming out on Friday!
