Protests, Power, and Pressure: PM Hasina's Dilemma and Can Pakistan Implement New IMF Deal?
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About 67 percent of Bangladesh’s 170 million people are aged 15-64 and more than a quarter are aged 15 and 29, according to the International Labour Organization.
Many Bangladeshi students are demanding an end to the government’s quota system, which reserves more than half of civil service posts for certain groups.
Asia View
Elections, Protests, and Power: Bangladesh Under Sheikh Hasina's Rule
Written By Aurko Chakrabarti, Applied Geopolitical Researcher, with Insights from FT, Reuters, The Guardian, The Diplomat, and TOI
Background
On 6th January, Sheikh Hasina secured her fifth term as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, much to the chagrin of spectators, particularly in the West, who heaped allegations of election rigging on the ruling Awami League party. The extension of her premiership was seen as the Awami League expanding their control over the country’s institutions and reducing democratic spaces. The exclusion of the primary opposition, the BNP, who refused to contest the elections, as they believed it would not be a free and fair process, fuelled autocrat narratives. The voter turnout for the election was officially at 40% but on-ground reports showed a lack of enthusiasm with the public resigned to the fact that their vote no longer held the same value.
In the run-up to the election, there were large amounts of political-violence consuming the streets of the country led by the BNP. These majorly died down after the election but an underlying feeling of economic discontent which had grown through the country in recent years, exasperated by the Covid-19 Pandemic, persisted. High inflation, a depletion of foreign reserves and blackouts, which were becoming a feature of everyday life were leaving the youth of the country, feeling disenfranchised, by a lack of opportunity. Daily wage protests by RMG workers which had begun in 2023 and continued into Hasina's fifth term, with workers feeling disillusioned that wealth was not being fairly distributed to them despite Bangladesh's role as a global hub for RMG manufacturing.
Protests are not new to Bangladesh but every once in a while, a desire for accountability in the country’s capital, Dhaka, can resonate with citizens across cities and quickly turn into a nationwide furore.
Anti-Quota Reform Protests
Students peacefully protested against the government on July 1 after the High Court re-instated the job quota that reserves one-third of civil service posts for the descents of freedom fighters who helped Bangladesh gain independence in the 1971 liberation movement. The ruling was made after disposing of a 2021 writ petition filed by the child of a freedom fighter and six others challenging the legality of abolishing quotas for freedom fighters. This system was previously abolished on October 4, 2018, following extensive nationwide protests. This makes the government's attempt to reintroduce it seem strange. Was this a display of arrogance? Or was it a sign of desperation?
The Awami League was at the forefront of the Liberation War, and the guerilla resistance force, Mukti Bahini, that fought for Bangladesh's independence primarily consisted of its supporters.
The Awami League’s attempt at trying to bring back this quota system could be seen as an attempt to shore up their political defences. 30% of civil service jobs going directly to the descendants of freedom fighters, assuming they are supporters of the current administration, would allow for a greater exertion of control and ideology by Sheikh Hasina.
PM Hasina's controversial remarks
The protests in Bangladesh turned violent after Prime minister Sheikh Hasina tagged the protestors as 'Razakars', a label used for individuals who took Pakistan’s side in the 1971 war.
"If not the grandchildren of the freedom fighters, then who will get quota benefits? The grandchildren of the 'Razakars'? This is my question. Sheikh Hasina, July 14
For context, 'Razakar' is a highly derogatory term in Bangladesh that essentially means traitor. Protestors from Dhaka University took to the street with their own slogan which roughly translates to “Who am I? Who are You? Razakar, Razakar. Who said that? Who said that? Autocrat. Autocrat.”
The last part of this slogan may seem unfamiliar to some who have been watching events unfold in Bangladesh, primarily because some elements of the media and governments only used to the first half of the slogan, “Who am I? Who are You? Razakar, Razakar.” to create a sense of othering. This distortion resulted in a lack of context, escalating the country's tensions.
Fights broke out all across the country between pro-government forces and protesters leaving thousands injured and 150 dead, though the government has refused to provide official data on the death toll. The student wing of the Awami League, Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) has faced accusations of sustained violence and brutality according to multiple reports.
The government also imposed a communications blackout, with the internet shut down and phone lines blocked. More than 70 leaders of the political opposition and several student leaders and activists have also been jailed, accused of creating unrest. Protests even reached the streets of London, fuelled by the large Bangladeshi diaspora residing in the UK.
Supreme Court Intervention
On July 21, Bangladesh’s top court decided to scale back the quotas on government jobs in an effort to stop the violence. The supreme court ruling, stated that only 5% of jobs would now be reserved for descendants of freedom fighters compared to the proposed 30% and another 2% for those from ethnic minorities or with disabilities, with the rest open to candidates based on merit.
Despite this, the country remains under an indefinite curfew, with people not allowed to leave their homes and gather in any capacity. An eeriness echoes through the empty streets of Dhaka, which almost resembles a war-torn city.
The matter is unlikely to end here though. Student organisers have already said the protests will not end but now in turn shift to demanding accountability and justice for the 100s of lives lost. While, Sheikh Hasina is no stranger to this kind of public outcry, this time feels different. Sheikh Hasina has been able to dust off criticism from foreign powers and has controlled dissent within Bangladesh from the opposition, but such strong backlash from the country’s youth may present a new challenge.
What will be the aftermath?
The liberation war of 1971 has always been central to Sheikh Hasina's message about the importance of maintaining sovereignty and why the Awami League is the only political party with the best interests of the country at heart. Recent events indicate that it can now be weaponised against her. There has always been a deep political divide in Bangladesh and a sense of mistrust that exists between the Awami League and the BNP. The BNP has used China's financing of development projects in Bangladesh, as well as Sheikh Hasina's close personal ties to neighbouring India, to fuel the narrative that the ruling government is selling the country out.
The divisive nature of the rhetoric put forth by Sheikh Hasina is alarming to many in Bangladesh and around the world. The stability provided by a continued government with Sheikh Hasina at the helm was one of the major reasons why foreign powers like China were keen on seeing her secure her 5th term as Prime Minister. But if the government cannot maintain peace and control, it may draw China’s large spending power closer to the BNP. China is more concerned with protecting its investments in Bangladesh and deep pockets can fit, regardless of the pants they are sewn into.
When anti-quota reform protests began, the government distanced itself from the issue, claiming that the decision was made by the High Court, over which they had no control. The separation between the government and the institutions in the country seemed to fade at the moment when Sheikh Hasina made the explosive remarks that sparked the violence.
Similarly, in the case of Nobel Prize laureate and microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus, Prime Minister Hasina and her party have claimed that the case against Yunus is completely unrelated to them. But is there a possibility that the lines have blurred between the State and its institutions? Yunus had always been a vocal critic of internal politics in Bangladesh and once had the idea of starting his own political party, but it never materialised. Yunus always believed it was due to interference from the Awami League.
Sheikh Hasina has always spoken about how the 'father of the nation', Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, fought against autocracy, oppression, and subjugation, resulting in the establishment of an independent Bangladesh. Over half a century later, is she following in his footsteps or will they be erased?
Af-Pak De/Cypher
22 July, 2024
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Afghanistan Update
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Bangladesh De/Cypher
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