China and the World: Ex-Banking Regulator Sentenced, China Masses 100 Vessels, US Expands Travel Ban List
This week we track key shifts in China’s domestic and foreign policy landscape as well as critical international developments.
China Quote 🗩
“We want to welcome more Chinese investment through projects and re-industrialisation strategies, and this is what will allow us to break the cycle we’re currently in.”
– French President Emmanuel Macron
Economic Activity🏦
Chinese rare earth dealers find ways to dodge Beijing’s export restrictions
Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese rare earth magnet producers are developing methods to bypass Beijing’s new export licensing regime, which has sharply restricted the outflow of key materials. Companies are adjusting magnet compositions to avoid controlled elements and are embedding magnets in motors to ship them without violating rules, allowing sales to Western buyers to continue even as authorities tighten oversight.
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang talks chip controls with Trump, warns regulation may hurt AI growth
CNBC reports that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met Donald Trump to discuss export controls on advanced AI chips, urging that overly restrictive regulation could hamper US competitiveness in the AI sector. Huang argued that state-by-state regulatory fragmentation would slow growth and innovation, and stressed the need to balance security concerns with fostering global access to AI technology.
China and US bolster semiconductor cooperation in high level talks
Asia News Network reports that senior Chinese and US officials have agreed to expand cooperation in semiconductor supply chains during recent high level discussions. Both sides signalled interest in stabilising the sector after years of escalating restrictions, focusing on improving information exchange, supporting commercial collaboration and reducing risks in critical technologies.
Dubai courts China’s next tech champions
Caixin Global reports that Dubai is stepping up efforts to attract emerging Chinese tech firms by offering streamlined licensing, generous incentives and access to regional markets. Emirati officials are positioning Dubai as a neutral hub for companies affected by US China tensions, with several Chinese AI and hardware start ups already exploring relocation or partial operations in the city.
China probes Tianfeng Securities over disclosure and financing issues
Caixin Global reports that regulators have launched an investigation into Tianfeng Securities for alleged violations involving information disclosure and financing practices. The probe follows tighter scrutiny of China’s capital markets as authorities aim to curb irregularities and reinforce investor confidence after a series of compliance lapses across the brokerage sector.
From micro dramas to video games, Chinese entertainment is booming
The Economist reports that China’s entertainment sector is expanding rapidly, driven by explosive growth in short form micro dramas and strong demand for domestic video games. Low cost production models, algorithmic distribution and rising consumer spending have created a fast scaling content ecosystem, while Chinese gaming firms continue to gain global market share despite regulatory uncertainty at home.
EU unveils strategy to secure raw materials and rare earth supplies
The Guardian reports that the European Commission has set out a plan to reduce the bloc’s reliance on China for critical minerals, including rare earths. The strategy focuses on diversifying supply chains, expanding strategic stockpiles and accelerating domestic mining and processing projects, reflecting growing concern over geopolitical vulnerabilities in materials essential for clean energy and advanced technology industries.
Inside China🐉
Chinese former banking regulator sentenced to suspended death penalty for corruption
Caixin Global reports that a former senior official at the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has received a suspended death sentence after being convicted of taking large bribes and abusing his position. The case forms part of Beijing’s wider anti graft drive targeting the financial sector, which has intensified as authorities seek to tighten control over regulatory bodies and address systemic risks.
Probe into deadly Hong Kong fire reveals systemic safety failures
Bloomberg reports that the investigation into the Hong Kong building fire that killed more than forty people has uncovered extensive lapses in safety enforcement and building management. The review highlights illegal modifications, blocked exits and weak oversight across multiple agencies, raising broader concerns about the territory’s regulatory standards and the growing risks posed by ageing high rise housing stock.
Hong Kong fire, Politburo study session highlights security and discipline priorities
Sinocism reports that Beijing is emphasising internal security and party discipline following a Politburo study session focused on safeguarding China’s political system. The newsletter notes that state media coverage framed the session around strengthening ideological control and preparing for external risks, while the fatal Hong Kong fire has intensified scrutiny of local governance and emergency response capacity amid broader concerns about social stability.
China’s CO2 emissions may have reached their peak
Scientific American reports that new analyses suggest China’s carbon dioxide emissions may have levelled off sooner than expected, driven by rapid growth in renewable energy, slowing construction activity and declining coal demand. Researchers caution that sustained policy commitment will be needed to ensure emissions do not rebound, but the data indicates a possible structural shift in China’s energy trajectory.
5.8 magnitude earthquake shakes parts of Xinjiang
Anadolu Agency reports that a 5.8 magnitude earthquake struck several areas of Xinjiang, with tremors felt across nearby counties. Early assessments indicated no major casualties, though authorities have deployed emergency teams to inspect infrastructure, monitor aftershocks and support local residents as damage evaluations continue.
International Relations🌏
Future of Tehran–Beijing ties hinges on Iran’s adherence to the NPT and a coherent China strategy
Discourse Power reports that Iranian China specialists argue that Beijing’s support for Tehran will collapse if Iran leaves the NPT, stressing that China’s backing is strictly conditional and rooted in a rights-and-obligations framework. They say arms sales have never stopped but remain covert and limited by China’s core interests. Beijing refuses to enter an Iran-versus-Israel binary and instead pursues parallel ties with all sides, driven by a stability-first “wealth paradigm” that contrasts with Russia’s appetite for controlled tension. The analysts fault Iran for lacking a long-term China strategy, failing to present its case on issues such as the three disputed Gulf islands, and relying on reactive “Look East” policies that leave Iran treated as expendable.
China and France discuss Ukraine and trade amid diplomatic outreach
France 24 reports that Chinese and French officials met in Beijing to discuss the war in Ukraine and bilateral trade ties, as both governments look to stabilise relations. Talks covered Europe’s concerns over Chinese support for Russia and ongoing trade frictions, with both sides signalling interest in deeper dialogue despite persistent political and economic tensions.
Beijing sends Xinjiang delegation to Paris during Macron’s China visit
Intelligence Online reports that as President Macron held meetings in China, Beijing dispatched a Xinjiang delegation to Paris in a bid to shape European perceptions of its policies in the region. The timing underscored China’s parallel diplomatic messaging strategy, with the delegation promoting Beijing’s narrative on Xinjiang while French officials navigated sensitive discussions on human rights and trade.
China pledges 100 million dollars in aid to Palestinian Authority
Arab News reports that China has announced 100 million dollars in humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian Authority to help address the crisis in Gaza and support reconstruction. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas thanked President Xi Jinping for the support, emphasising China’s long standing backing of Palestinian rights. At a joint appearance with France’s President Emmanuel Macron in Beijing, Xi said China and France will push for a comprehensive and lasting political solution, underscoring the importance of maintaining strategic cooperation despite wider global tensions.
China urges de escalation in Latin America and opposes outside involvement in Venezuela
Anadolu Agency reports that Beijing has called for calm in Latin America amid rising tensions over Venezuela’s political crisis, reiterating its opposition to foreign interference. Chinese officials urged all parties to pursue dialogue and stability, framing the situation as a matter for regional actors while signalling continued support for sovereignty and non intervention principles.
Japan issues safety advisory in China ahead of Nanjing Massacre anniversary
The Straits Times reports that Japan has warned its citizens in China to exercise caution before the anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre, citing concerns about possible anti Japanese sentiment. The advisory follows previous instances of heightened nationalist reactions around sensitive historical dates, with Japanese officials urging travellers and residents to avoid attracting attention and to monitor local developments.
UK weighs security concerns as decision on Chinese mega embassy delayed again
BBC News reports that the UK government has postponed its planning decision on China’s proposed new embassy in London for a third time, extending the process into the new year amid heightened security concerns. No 10 argued that consolidating China’s seven existing diplomatic sites into a single complex at Royal Mint Court could offer security advantages, although critics warn the facility could become a major hub for espionage.
Chinese drone maker revealed as covert supplier to Russia, Libya and Sahel juntas
Intelligence Online reports that a Chinese drone manufacturer has quietly become a key supplier to sanctioned or internationally isolated actors, providing systems to Russia, Libyan factions and Sahel military juntas despite Beijing’s claims of neutrality. The firm uses opaque procurement chains, intermediaries and front companies to bypass export controls and obscure state involvement, enabling battlefield deployment of reconnaissance and strike-capable UAVs. Intelligence assessments suggest the shipments form part of a broader pattern in which Chinese commercial entities feed conflict zones while official channels maintain deniability.
China masses more than 100 military and coast guard ships across region in major show of force
Reuters reports that China has deployed an unprecedented number of naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters, at one point exceeding 100 ships, according to security officials and regional intelligence. The movements span the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea and into the Pacific, occurring amid a sharp diplomatic dispute with Japan over Taiwan and Beijing’s anger at Taipei’s decision to raise defence spending.
America risks losing Chinese scientific and tech talent as hostile policies drive them home
The Economist reports that US visa restrictions, political hostility and past prosecutions under the China Initiative are accelerating the departure of Chinese students, scientists and AI specialists from the United States. Chinese enrolment has fallen sharply, thousands of researchers have returned to China, and leading AI talent is reconsidering American careers amid uncertainty over visas and rising geopolitical tensions.
Tech in China🖥️
China’s unmanned Moyujian strike helicopter ready for high altitude combat tests
South China Morning Post reports that China’s new unmanned strike helicopter, the Moyujian, has completed development and is preparing for plateau combat trials. Designed for high altitude operations and equipped with precision strike capabilities, the aircraft is expected to support missions in mountainous border regions. Analysts say the platform reflects China’s push to expand unmanned combat aviation and improve its ability to operate in challenging terrain.
China’s reusable Zhuque 3 rocket reaches orbit in milestone test
CGTN reports that the Zhuque 3, a stainless steel reusable rocket developed by private firm LandSpace, has successfully entered orbit for the first time. The launch marks a significant advance in China’s commercial space capabilities, with engineers aiming for rapid reusability and lower cost lift capacity. The mission is expected to support future heavy lift development and China’s broader ambitions in competitive commercial launch services.
China’s Nvidia challengers line up bumper IPOs amid tech self sufficiency push
South China Morning Post reports that several Chinese AI chipmakers are preparing large IPOs as Beijing accelerates efforts to reduce reliance on US semiconductor technology. Companies developing graphics processors and AI accelerators expect strong investor demand, driven by government support and a fast growing domestic market. Analysts say these listings signal China’s determination to build a competitive ecosystem capable of challenging Nvidia’s dominance despite ongoing US export controls.
Global Risk🗺️
UK inquiry finds Putin morally responsible for 2018 Novichok death of Dawn Sturgess
BBC News reports that a UK public inquiry has concluded Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised the operation to assassinate former spy Sergei Skripal, making him morally responsible for the Novichok poisoning that killed Dawn Sturgess in 2018. Sturgess died after inadvertently applying the nerve agent, discarded in a perfume bottle used in the earlier attack on the Skripals in Salisbury.
US aims to end Congo Rwanda conflict with proposed peace deal
AP News reports that the United States is pushing a new peace proposal to halt fighting between Congo and Rwanda, seeking to stabilise a conflict that has displaced millions. The plan, presented under President Trump’s administration, urges Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23 rebellion and calls on Congo to curb armed groups operating in its territory. Washington argues the deal could reset regional relations, though analysts warn that deep mistrust between Kigali and Kinshasa may hinder progress.
US to expand travel ban list to more than 30 countries, Noem says
Reuters reports that the United States plans to extend its travel ban to over 30 countries as part of a wider security review under President Trump. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the administration is assessing nations considered high risk due to security or immigration concerns, though she did not specify which countries would be added. The move is expected to face legal and diplomatic pushback, with critics arguing the policy is overly broad and lacks clear criteria.
Germany closes air defence gap with acquisition of Israel’s Arrow 3 missile shield
Bloomberg reports that Israel has completed delivery of the Arrow 3 anti ballistic missile system to Germany, marking the first time the high altitude interceptor has been transferred to another country. The system will allow the German Air Force to detect and destroy ballistic missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere, forming a central pillar of Berlin’s broader effort to modernise its air defences.
Israeli cyber networks in Bangkok found supporting Russian and Thai aviation firms
Intelligence Online reports that Israeli operated cyber infrastructure in Bangkok has been providing technical support to both Russian and Thai aviation companies. The networks, run by private contractors, have supplied cyber defence tools and troubleshooting services, raising questions about compliance with Western sanctions on Russian entities. The activity highlights Bangkok’s role as a discreet regional hub for sensitive commercial and security related digital services.
US officials visit Thailand in probe of Russian aviation sanctions busting
Intelligence Online reports that American investigators recently travelled to Thailand to examine possible violations of sanctions targeting Russia’s aviation sector. The visit focused on suspected supply chains funnelling restricted parts and services to Russian airlines through intermediaries in Southeast Asia. US authorities are expanding scrutiny of regional hubs believed to facilitate circumvention schemes, as Washington seeks to tighten enforcement of restrictions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Vatican panel rejects women deacons for now but calls for wider leadership roles
The New York Times reports that a Vatican commission examining whether women could serve as deacons has recommended against permitting female ordination, saying further study is required. The decision, delivered to Pope Leo XIV, disappoints campaigners who hoped for change after years of debate under Popes Francis and Leo. The panel instead urged the creation of new leadership roles for women and greater inclusion in decision making bodies.
Indonesia flood survivors await aid amid rising frustration
Channel NewsAsia reports that communities hit by severe flooding in Indonesia are growing increasingly frustrated as relief supplies remain slow to arrive. Thousands have been displaced, with survivors lacking food, clean water and shelter. Authorities say access difficulties and ongoing heavy rains have hampered delivery efforts, while neighbouring Sri Lanka and Thailand are also responding to flood related emergencies triggered by the same weather system.
New walrus haul out discovered on Svalbard
Discover Wildlife reports that researchers have identified a previously unknown walrus haul out site on Svalbard, signalling shifting behaviour as Arctic warming alters sea ice patterns. Scientists say the new gathering spot may reflect changing feeding conditions and habitat pressures, with walruses increasingly relying on land based sites as ice retreats. The find will inform ongoing monitoring of how climate change is reshaping Arctic marine ecosystems.
Decypher Data Dive📊
Revenues of the world’s 100 largest arms companies climbed 5.9% to a record $679 billion in 2024, according to SIPRI. However, performance varied sharply across countries. China’s major defence firms saw revenues fall by 10%, in contrast to strong growth in Japan (40%), Germany (36%), and the United States (3.8%). Within China, AVIC, Norinco, and CASC all reported declines. Norinco recorded the steepest drop, with revenue falling 31% to $14 billion.
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Data By Bhupesh
Edited By Aurko
Produced by Decypher Team in New Delhi, India
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