Table of Contents
Asian Headlines: Quick Recap
UAE's spymaster, the British short seller and anonymous X account holders in smear campaignIn the short selling world, it has become the latest thing to mount a false smear campaign and accuse the real target of being behind it. The UAE's spymaster Tahnoon bin Zayel Al Nahyan appears to have become caught in the crosshairs of such an operation.
Israeli Intel Ministry Suggests Relocating Gazans to Sinai After Hamas WarThe document suggests an option for Israel to initially relocate Gaza's population to tent cities to be followed later by the establishment of permanent communities in northern Sinai. This is a first indication that the political leadership is considering exit strategies from the war. The document presents two additional alternatives for the future of the Gaza Strip that do not include population transfer. One would permit the Palestinian Authority, which has partial control of the West Bank and which was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007, to control Gaza with its current residents remaining. Another option would have Israel establish "local Arab rule" by Gaza’s residents who remain in their homes after the collapse of the Hamas regime.
Malaysian sultans choose new king in unique rotational monarchyThe royal families of Malaysia have chosen Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar of Johor as the country's next king. Despite its largely ceremonial role, Malaysia's monarchy has grown in power as a result of political unrest. The country has a unique system in which nine royal heads alternate as monarch for five-year terms in a parliamentary democracy. Sultan Ibrahim will succeed King Al-Sultan Abdullah on January 31, 2024, and is known for his outspoken political views and business ventures.
Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter elected leader of Thailand's ruling partyThe ruling Pheu Thai Party in Thailand has appointed Paetongtarn Shinawatra (37), the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as its new leader, extending the Shinawatra family's political influence in the country. Paetongtarn seeks public approval by expressing gratitude and promising to improve people's lives. Due to corruption allegations and power struggles within Thailand's political landscape, the Shinawatra family's political role has sparked controversy.
Iran does not want Israel-Hamas conflict to spread, foreign minister saysAccording to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran does not want the conflict between Israel and Hamas to escalate. He denied any direct links between Iran and the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants, which resulted in significant casualties. The US stated that while Iran was likely aware of Hamas' plans, some Iranian leaders were taken aback by the attack. The US also warned Iran against attacks on US personnel or proxies, citing recent US military strikes in Syria that targeted locations used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies.
China and Russia take aim at US at Chinese military forumChina's Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia, pledged to strengthen military ties with the US at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, while criticising unnamed nations for causing disruptions and attempting to undermine Communist Party rule. Zhang's remarks emphasised the importance of mutual respect and peaceful cooperation between China and the United States.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
23 Oct, 2023
Top Story
An executive committee of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in Pakistan, has given the go-ahead for negotiating the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) with Saudi Arabia aimed at addressing concerns of the kingdom that wants international arbitration in case of an investment dispute. The investment treaty with Saudi Arabia and Qatar would be annexed with the free trade agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), highly placed sources told The Express Tribune. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the preliminary FTA late last month but postponed the inking of the final FTA till the agreement on BIT.
Earlier in September Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar had said Saudi Arabia will invest up to $25 billion in Pakistan over the next two to five years in various sectors including mining, agriculture, and information technology. If Riyadh agrees to go ahead, this investment would be the biggest ever by the Saudi Arabia in Pakistan. There was no mention of specific projects Riyadh was looking to invest in, but in August Barrick Gold Corp stated it was open to bringing in Saudi Arabia's wealth fund as one of its partners in Reko Diq gold and copper mine in Baluchistan, which is one of the world's largest underdeveloped copper-gold areas. Read more: The Express Tribune, The Express Tribune
Regional Security
With only two days remaining until the October 31 deadline, thousands of Afghans are hastening their return to their home country as part of the accelerated repatriation process. Official sources have confirmed that Pakistan government will stick to its plan of deporting illegal immigrants. It has decided against extending the deadline for voluntary repatriation. Once the deadline has passed, action will be taken against those found to be residing in the country illegally, including the confiscation of all their movable and immovable assets. To ensure compliance, law enforcement agencies have completed the geo-fencing and geo-mapping of illegal residents. Over 86,000 undocumented Afghan nationals have so far returned to their country while one-hundred and forty-nine families returned to Afghanistan in one-hundred and seventy-four trucks during the last twenty-four hours.
The UN Refugee Agency has expressed concern that the current conditions in Afghanistan could endanger most returning individuals. It has also urged Pakistan to establish a registration system for undocumented migrants and has offered to provide necessary financial and structural support. Read more: The Express Tribune, Arab News
China & Pakistan
A visit to China's Belt and Road Forum by Pakistan's caretaker prime minister, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar netted a slew of agreements. The biggest move was an agreement to start work on the long-awaited Main Line 1 (ML-1) railway project, a plan to upgrade over 1,700 kilometers of track between Karachi and Peshawar.
One of the agreements between China and Pakistan include a $1.5 billion investment by the United Energy Group of China to boost Pakistan's refinery capacity, along with a project to turn the Khunjerab Pass, a trade route between the neighbors that closes in winter due to snow, into an all-weather border.
After returning from China Pakistan’s Caretaker Prime Minister Kakar expressed satisfaction over the probable investment from private Chinese companies emphasizing that their investment would provide a much-needed relief to Pakistan’s economy. He stated that almost 20 MoUs were signed during his visit. These MoUs include cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure, mining, industry, green and low-carbon development, health, space cooperation, digital, development cooperation and agricultural export to China. Read more: Nikkei Asia, Dunya News
In a recent conference Consul General of China in Lahore Mr. Zhao Shiren praised China-Pakistan ties and stated that the recently concluded 3rd Belt and Road Forum has injected a fresh impetus into high-quality cooperation between China and Pakistan. Commercial agreements worth $97.2 billion have also been concluded at the Belt & Road Forum CEO Conference. Read more: The Nation
The Industry and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has launched a new initiative with the name of RMB Clearing Bank to streamline the financial process of China Pakistan Economic Corridor and facilitate more trade and investment between the two countries. Earlier Pakistan had to rely on correspondent banks in Hong Kong or elsewhere to manage Chinese investments. RMB Clearing Bank will certainly lower pressure on the foreign reserves of Pakistan. Being the first clearing bank in South Asia it will act as a catalyst for Belt & Road Initiative and accelerate the implementation of Chinese projects. Read more: The News International
Domestic Affairs
Pakistan has failed to combat rising impunity of crimes against journalists, an Islamabad-based independent media watchdog said on 29th October based on an annual report, released ahead of the International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists on November 2. This is despite Pakistan’s Legislature enacting specialized laws to protect journalists two years ago. The report sheds light on the challenges faced by journalists in the South Asian country. In the report, Islamabad leads with 37.5 percent violations, Sindh second worst with 22.5 percent of all crimes against journalists. Read more: Arab News
A comprehensive analysis of the Labour Force Survey 2020-21 by Gallup Pakistan and PRIDE reveals that a staggering 21.8 million youths aged 15-29 in Pakistan are neither in education, training, nor employment. This NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) rate stands at 37%. It is important to note a significant gender disparity, with young women experiencing a much higher NEET rate compared to men (62% vs. 12%). Regional analysis indicates slightly higher NEET rates in urban areas in comparison to rural areas (38.1% vs. 36.7%). The province-wise NEET rate reveals the highest rate in Balochistan (43.5%), followed by KP (43.1%), and the lowest in Punjab (34%). Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan exhibit variations in NEET rates across different divisions, emphasizing the diverse nature of the issue. Read more: Gallup Pakistan
Women Empowerment
Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa on 26th October observed that women were being deprived of their rights in an unconstitutional and un-Islamic manner in Pakistan. The CJP was heading a three-member bench which heard the case pertaining to a land dispute between an uncle and his niece. Read more: The Express Tribune
The analysis of the Labour Force Survey 2020-21 by Gallup Pakistan and PRIDE reveals a concerning situation for female engineering graduates in Pakistan. Among 28,920 female engineering graduates, only 28% are employed, while 20.9% are unemployed, and a significant 50.9% are not participating in the labour force. The research also highlighted regional disparities, with more opportunities in urban areas (67.2%) compared to rural areas (32.8%). Furthermore, it revealed that 64.2% of those not participating in the labour force were married. Experts stress the need for serious attention to address the high unemployment rate among trained female engineers and reconsider government investments in education. The data collected from nearly 99,900 households across Pakistan provides district-level representative results for the first time. Read more: Tribune Pakistan, Gallup Pakistan
In nearly 30 years, the median age at first marriage for women in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has remained almost unchanged as revealed by Gallup Pakistan's Big Data Analysis. The study analyzed data from the 'Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey' across multiple editions from 1990-91 to 2017-18. Key findings reveal a 12% reduction in the percentage of women married by age 18 over 30 years. The median age at first marriage increased from 18.6 in 1990 to 20.4 in 2017. Notably, the median age exhibited variations based on background characteristics, with urban areas experiencing a two-year increase. Higher education led to later first marriages, and wealth inequalities had limited changes. When considering provincial differences, it's interesting to observe that the median age at first marriage increased by 2 years in Punjab and 3 years in Sindh over three decades. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa saw no significant change, and Balochistan experienced a 2-year increase. Read more: Gallup Pakistan
Foreign Affairs
United States Ambassador to Pakistan Donald Blome met Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar in Islamabad on 26th October. During their discussions, Prime Minister Kakar shed light on the pivotal measures that the federal government was implementing, with a particular focus on critical areas such as economic stability, the repatriation of illegal foreigners, and the ongoing electoral process. The talks also delved into regional developments, with a specific emphasis on the situation in Gaza. Read more: The Express Tribune
Views & Analysis
As Pakistan heads toward its next general elections, set for late January 2024, its results remain unpredictable. One former prime minister – Imran Khan – is in jail, while another former PM Nawaz Sharif has just returned home. For an overview of the complicated dynamics underlying Pakistani politics, The Diplomat’s Shannon Tiezzi interviewed Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre. Kugelman outlines the contrasting developments for Sharif and Khan, and the military’s role behind the scenes.
Read More: Michael Kugelman on Pakistani Politics After Nawaz Sharif’s Return – The Diplomat
Infographic
Read more: Macro Pakistani
Fact of the Week!!
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Bangladesh De/Cypher
23 Oct, 2023
Top Stories From The Week: Bangladesh
International Outlook
On Monday (30th), the Bangladeshi government intends to brief foreign diplomats, UN and international organisation representatives in Dhaka on the country's current political situation. The briefing will be led by Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen, who will address events surrounding the BNP General Assembly on October 28, highlighting the BNP's violence and law enforcement responses. Read more: Prothom Alo
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met with Jutta Urpilainen, the European Commissioner for International Partnerships, in Brussels to discuss the Awami League's efforts to restore democracy in Bangladesh and create a conducive environment for fair elections. Hasina emphasised initiatives such as the creation of an independent Election Commission, the use of photo ID/biometric voter lists, and the use of transparent ballot boxes. Read more: The Daily Observer
On Thursday, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the US is keeping an eye on reports about former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's deteriorating health. He urged the Bangladeshi government to provide her with a fair and transparent legal process. Miller emphasised that the United States does not take sides in Bangladesh's internal political affairs, reiterating the country's neutral stance on the issue. Read more: New Age
On Friday, Bangladesh and Canada agreed to take their relations to the next level during the fifth Foreign Office Consultations in Ottawa. Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen of Bangladesh and Assistant Deputy Minister Weldon Epp of Canada led the discussions, which covered political ties, economic cooperation, trade, investment, technical assistance, the Rohingya crisis response, and global issues. Bangladesh thanked Canada for recognising its economic growth and for hosting Rohingya refugees. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
On Saturday, the US strongly condemned the recent political violence in Dhaka, expressing outrage over the deaths of a police officer and a political activist, as well as the burning of a hospital. In line with their previous statement indicating visa restrictions for those undermining Bangladesh's democratic election process, the US embassy in Dhaka announced plans to review all violent incidents for potential visa restrictions. Read more: BD News 24
National Politics
On Saturday, violence erupted during an opposition party protest demanding Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation and advocating for fair elections under a neutral caretaker government in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Tens of thousands of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supporters clashed with police, killing one officer and injuring 100 others, as well as attacking journalists. BNP leaders demanded Hasina's resignation to ensure fair elections in January, but the government refused. The BNP declared a nationwide strike in protest, accusing Hasina's government of human rights violations and dissent suppression. Read more: Voice of America
On Sunday, Bangladesh's Home Minister, Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, stated that top leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) cannot deny responsibility for the violence on Saturday and the death of a police officer. He emphasised that the attacks took place during meetings of BNP leaders, holding them accountable. Read more: The Daily Star
On Sunday, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Secretary General of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was reportedly 'arrested' from his home in Gulshan by detective police during a BNP-called protest. The authorities did not immediately provide any information about the case or the reasons for the arrest. Read more: Protidiner Sangbad
On Monday (30th), the Bangladesh Election Commission (EC), led by Kazi Habibul Awal, is set to meet with high-level representatives of law enforcement and security forces ahead of the 12th national parliament elections. The meeting's goal is to talk about how to keep the peace and order during the upcoming elections. The EC has invited key officials to coordinate efforts, including the Principal Staff Officer of the Armed Forces, the Inspector General of Police, and the heads of various security agencies. Read more: Manab Zamin
Business and Economy
On Monday (23rd), the World Trade Organisation (WTO) General Council decided to extend support measures for least-developed countries (LDCs) on the path to graduation from LDC status. This decision is intended to address the challenges that countries face as they transition out of the LDC category. LDCs that meet specific United Nations development criteria are given preferential treatment at the WTO, including increased market access and greater flexibility in adopting WTO rules. There are currently 46 LDCs, with 16 in various stages of graduation. Bangladesh is one of the LDCs nearing completion. Read more: The Business Standard
On Wednesday, the European Union (EU) and Bangladesh signed agreements worth €400 million for renewable energy projects in Bangladesh, with the goal of promoting sustainable development and addressing climate change challenges. This partnership, announced at the Global Gateway Forum, includes a €350 million EU-guaranteed European Investment Bank (EIB) loan, as well as a €45 million blending support package. The projects will concentrate on utility-scale solar photovoltaic and onshore wind projects, with the potential for battery energy storage systems, and will contribute to the installation of 750 MWp of new renewable energy capacity in Bangladesh. Read more: The Business Standard
On Thursday, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urged Belgium and Luxembourg to extend tariff and quota-free access to their markets for Bangladeshi goods (excluding arms and ammunition) until 2032 under the Everything but Arms (EBA) facility. During bilateral meetings with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, Hasina emphasised the importance of continued support as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from LDC status in 2026, despite challenges from the Covid-19 pandemic and conflicts. Read more: Bangi News
On Sunday, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of Bangladesh signed a loan agreement worth $106 million to improve water management and agricultural productivity in rural Bangladesh. The project, dubbed the "Climate and Disaster Resilient Small-Scale Water Resources Management Project," aims to improve flood embankments, increase water retention, provide efficient irrigation, and promote climate-smart agriculture and fisheries development. It will benefit 380,000 households by increasing crop production, improving produce quality, and diversifying crops, with a focus on women and vulnerable individuals. Read more: The Financial Express
Over the last week, thousands of workers in Bangladesh's ready-made garment (RMG) sector have protested for higher wages, demanding a monthly minimum of Tk 23,000, while manufacturers proposed Tk 10,400. Dissatisfied with the proposed rise, workers have staged protests, with some turning violent. The government extended the tenure of the wage board, which irritated the workers. While denying any involvement in violence, the BGMEA president and trade union leaders emphasised the critical need for a fair wage increase. Read more: The Business post
Society
Bangladesh is experiencing its worst dengue outbreak yet, with 1,818 new cases reported this year, bringing the total to 267,680. Six more people have died between Saturday and Sunday, bringing the total to 1,333. Dhaka saw three of these deaths and 355 new cases, while 1,463 new patients were reported outside the capital. Read more: Somoy News
On Sunday, Journalist Rafiq Bhuiya died from severe head injuries sustained after falling from a rickshaw when police fired tear gas shells during a clash between BNP supporters and police in Dhaka. He was rushed to BIRDEM Hospital but died on Sunday as a result of his injuries. Read more: Barta 24
Rohingya Refugee Crisis
On Friday, during the fifth Bangladesh-Canada Foreign Office Consultations in Ottawa, Canada's Assistant Deputy Minister (Asia Pacific), Weldon Epp, praised Bangladesh for sheltering over 1.1 million Rohingya refugees and reaffirmed Canada's commitment to addressing the Rohingya crisis. Political relations, economic cooperation, trade expansion, technical assistance, migration, and global issues were all discussed. Read more: Jago News 24
On Wednesday, Cyclone Hamoon struck Bangladesh's southeastern coast, displacing nearly 275,000 people and killing at least two people. Despite the fact that power lines were downed and coastal areas experienced heavy rain, no widespread major damage was reported. The cyclone missed the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox's Bazar. Despite the consequences, improved forecasting and evacuation planning have resulted in a significant reduction in storm-related casualties in recent years. Read more: Asean Plus News
In the Rohingya camps of Ukhia and Teknaf in Cox's Bazar, terrorist activities, including killings, kidnappings, and arson, are being carried out under the orders of Ataullah Jununi, the leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a Myanmar-based terrorist group. Over 150 armed terrorists are active in the camps, and 5,000 Rohingyas have been recruited into ARSA since 2019, with many later withdrawing. So far, 73 ARSA members have been arrested in law enforcement operations. Read more: Bangladesh Pratidin
Women In Bangladesh
On Thursday, the World Food Programme (WFP) and Bangladesh's Department of Women Affairs (DWA) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU). By 2026, the agreement aims to improve inclusive, nutritionally sensitive, and shock-responsive social protection programmes. The collaboration aims to strengthen national institutions' capacity to design and implement inclusive nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programmes, as well as shock-responsive social protection programmes. Read more: The Daily Star
Bangladesh's latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2022 reveals a concerning gender disparity in the workforce. Out of the eight lakh unemployed graduates, 3.36 lakh were women, indicating a nearly 19 percent unemployment rate among female graduates, higher than the overall tertiary-level education unemployment rate of 12 percent. Women's employment is hampered by societal challenges such as family pressure, a lack of childcare, and biased recruitment processes. Read more: The Daily Star
The Bangladesh Western Economic Corridor & Regional Enhancement (WeCARE) Programme, funded by the World Bank, empowers vulnerable women by providing job opportunities in transportation and road projects. According to WeCARE's impact assessment, more than 91 percent of women are meeting daily expenses, up from 13 percent before the programme. The initiative supports the World Bank's goal of closing gender gaps by demonstrating how transport projects can empower women in traditionally male-dominated industries. Read more: World Bank Blogs
Views and Analysis
Interview: Empowering women in South and Southeast Asia with finance for solar
The EmPower project, a collaboration between UN Women and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), empowers women in South and Southeast Asia by providing loans and market access to solar-powered agri-businesses. The programme promotes solar irrigation, clean water access, and powering agricultural operations in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. While some projects have thrived, success depends on the context. The initiative provides grant funding to leverage additional public and private funds in order to address climate resilience and mitigation challenges through female-led renewable energy enterprises. Read more: The Third Pole
Infographic
It should be noted that the Numbeo Crime Index is based on user-contributed data and perceptions, which may differ from official government statistics. The index is a comparative tool for evaluating the relative safety of various cities or countries, assisting individuals in making informed decisions and understanding the crime landscape in specific locations.
Fact of the Week!!
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